At the headquarters of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, DC, imposing images announcing the start of the fund's and the bank's annual meetings adorn huge walls: there are inscriptions advocating for global trade, climate concerns, debt relief issues as well as public health and other development challenges around the world, especially in developing economies.
Several yards from the World Bank and IMF buildings, a small crowd of excited visitors and revelers gathered around Pennsylvania Avenue, overlooking the White House, the seat of the president of the United States. Around the avenue, a small inscription announced some renovation efforts underway, ahead of the change of command in the White House next year.
The IMF and World Bank meetings begin today, Monday, while the US elections are scheduled for November 5. Both developments are critical to conversations about global trade, multilateralism and economic growth.
“You could feel the pulse of the people; Everywhere you go, there is a mix of excitement and concern, especially among immigrants,” a Washington-based taxi driver who identifies himself simply as Bob, originally from Ethiopia, told PREMIUM TIMES.
“The election is very crucial,” he said, driving steadily down O Street, NW, Washington.
Economic experts and global finance chiefs met in Washington this week to discuss the future of global trade, finance and related climate actions. The discussions continue amid uncertainty over wars in the Middle East and Europe, the Chinese economy and a crucial U.S. presidential election that could spark new trade battles and potentially weaken multilateral cooperation.
Last Thursday, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she expected US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to take a “very pragmatic” approach towards the IMF and the World Bank.
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Although Trump has distanced himself from the project, the “Project 2025” agenda of some Republicans calls for the United States to withdraw from the IMF and the World Bank to seek only bilateral financial and development aid in line with “American interests.”
Harris is expected to follow in the footsteps of Joe Biden's administration's policy on trade, international cooperation and multilateralism.
Georgieva said it was up to the American people to choose their leader because she had had positive experience working with current and past US administrations.
“My experience with the United States – any administration – has always been very positive… The United States is very pragmatic. Bring a positive attitude. “It's demanding and I like that,” he said.
But speaking further, he expressed concern about outcomes that could stifle global trade, noting that “major players, driven by national security concerns, are increasingly turning to industrial policy and protectionism, creating a constraint.” commercial after another.”
The United States is the largest shareholder in both the IMF and the World Bank, which puts it in a strategic decision-making position: it has effective veto power over important decisions.
Concern over Chinese manufacturing
Another major concern of experts at the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank is the growing trade tension due to a large avalanche of Chinese exports.
Georgieva said last Thursday that China could grow at a significantly faster rate if it makes changes to give its consumers the confidence to spend more.
“China is at the fork in the road. If they continue with their current model, which is export-led growth, there will be problems. Because? Because the Chinese economy has grown to a point where China's exports are no longer a minor factor in world trade,” he told Reuters in an interview.
China can no longer rely on “some miracle that will maintain an export-based model as a viable vehicle in this great economy,” he said.
In the absence of domestic demand in China, manufacturing production has been diverted toward exports, prompting the United States, Europe and others to raise tariff barriers to protect workers and industries.
Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 60 percent or more on imports from China and 10 percent on those from other countries, apparently as part of a return to his retreat from “America First” multilateralism.
In the context of concerns about trade restrictions, Ms Georgieva warned that trade “will not be the same engine of growth as before”, because the restrictions are “like pouring cold water on an already lukewarm global economy”.
And he added: “We live in a distrustful and fragmented world where national security has come to the top of the list of concerns of many countries. This has happened before, but never in a time of such high economic codependency. My argument is that we must not allow this reality to become an excuse for doing nothing to avoid further fracturing of the global economy.”
Last week, World Bank President Ajay Banga credited Trump for increasing investment in the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development during his presidency, which offers loans to middle-income developing countries.
“Then the question will be: how will the nuances of each administration differ? “I don't know yet, so I'm not going to speculate on how to deal with them,” he said.
Africa (sub-Saharan)
At the meetings, issues affecting the economies of sub-Saharan Africa will dominate discussions, in addition to insights into the Regional Economic Outlook on Friday, October 25.
Abebe Selassie, Director of the African Department, will present the latest outlook for the region and provide crucial insights into the region's economic outlook.
Before that, on Wednesday, Wale Edun, Nigeria's Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, will discuss how to explore options for countries facing liquidity challenges amid elevated development needs. The conversation will also focus on domestic reforms to boost growth and mobilize domestic resources, external financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners and mobilization of private sector inputs at an affordable cost, including credit enhancements.
Edun will also participate in a conversation on (debt) sustainability concerns, alongside Iyabo Masha, Director of the G-24 Secretariat; Ralph Recto, Secretary of Finance of the Philippines; and Candelaria Moroni, Undersecretary of International Coordination, Argentina.