KUNLE ODEREMI writes about the lack of compromise that appears to be the bane of the main opposition parties in their attempt to forge an alliance, while alleging a plan by the ruling All Progressives Congress to impose a one-party state on Nigerians .
There was much frenzy within the ranks of opposition party leaders as the country entered the New Year. The echoes of the restful moves by the presidential candidates of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP) and the Labor Party to form a coalition ahead of the 2027 elections resonated again. Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP had denied speculation about a political pact with Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labor Party for the 2027 presidency. “The most annoying thing is that I heard from a recent source that some people in The PDP told a group of 45 (Islamic) scholars that there is a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years, Kwankwaso will subsequently rule for four years and Peter obi, eight years old; this totally false; It is not true,” Kwankwanso told BBC’s Hausa Language program unequivocally. Peter also vehemently disassociated himself from the so-called pcat, only for the Labor Party to say it could go it alone to win the next election given its performance rate in the 2023 general election. He added that there was no automatic candidacy for any presidential candidate in the party platform.
The issues raised by the controversial pact, according to some analysts, encapsulate the confusion within the opposition as it attempts to develop a viable common strategy against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the upcoming elections. Amid the staccato between the PDP, NNPP and LP over the idea of forming a coalition or a merger, the promoters of the League of Northern Democrats (NLD) revealed an ambitious plan to facilitate a formidable national party with the sole objective objective of relegating the influence and control of the PDP and the APC over the political lever of Nigeria. The NLD plans to co-opt dissidents from the PDP and APC along with other similar ideas spread across the country. The league said in a statement by the NLD coordinator, Dr. Umar Ardo, that the major national challenges of poverty, insecurity, institutional decay, corruption and economic stagnation are due to poor governance by the APC and PDP, as the parties prioritized. selfish interests, entrenched mediocrity and neglected internal democracy. The NLD, which until now had been the initiative of some northern political leaders, announced its intention to partner with like-minded people in the south of the country in seeking to form a new party as a “credible alternative that institutionalizes meritocracy, promotes surrender “accountability and ensure the emergence of leaders with proven competence and integrity.” He would recall that Obi had also denied that Atiku Abubakar or any of his loyalists had approached him about an alleged merger of political structures before the general elections. A spokesperson for the Labor Party presidential campaign organisation, Tanko Yunusa, and NNPP national publicity secretary, Ladipo Johnson, also denied any merger talks with the PDP. This came in the wake of a report quoting PDP deputy national spokesperson Ibrahim Abdullahi that the three main opposition figures were discussing the possibility of a merger. He stated that Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi were set to form a formidable alliance capable of taking on the APC in the upcoming elections. Some cross-party supporters argue that the lack of consensus between the trio of PDP, NNPP and LP appears to be an obstacle. The three political leaders symbolize the faces of their respective parties. Except the PDP, which is still entangled in a strange power struggle between the camp loyal to former Vice President Atiku and the one comprising allies of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr. Nyesom Wike, as well as the LP who does not fully agree with Obi on party issues, Kwakwanso is the rear ego of the NNPP, although some forces claim that the party is on autopilot. Therefore, the bane of efforts to build a formidable coalition is the clash of personalities and the ambition to run for the presidency in 2027.
From other lands
The role of alliances has proven to be fundamental in the history of presidential elections in several African countries in the last two decades. Lately, more countries on the continent have recorded cases of opposition parties defeating parties in power. The list of those countries includes Nigeria, when three major parties and a splinter fringe party defeated the then People's Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015. It was the first major setback since the country reestablished civilian rule after prolonged years of military autocracy. Other countries where similar electoral setbacks have been recorded are: Liberia, Lesotho, Somalia, Zambia, Cape Verde; Seychelles, Malawi; Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, Madagascar; Ghana, Benin, Gambia; Mauritius, Malawi; Madagascar; Mali, Senegal, Lesotho, Somalia, Niger, Zambia, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Benin, Mauritius, Kenya; Madagascar; Senegal, Mauritius, Burundi, Central African Republic, Niger, Congo, Zambia and Cape Verde.
According to researchers, many opposition parties tend to fail after an election only to rev up their machinery on the threshold of another season of electoral battles. Furthermore, many of them are founded by individual personalities, who exercise almost absolute control. Therefore, parties are deficient in internal democracy, are often entangled in inter- and intra-party conflicts, lack funds, and have weak base and experience. The trend is in stark contrast to the ugly scenario of strict leadership as the continent boasts the eight longest-serving presidents. Presidents, who have governed for periods ranging from two to five decades, maintain their grip on power by manipulating institutions and constitutions. Togo, Comoros and Cameroon are among the countries with longest-serving leaders. There is President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea, who came to power in 1979 in a military coup. He has the ignoble record of the longest-serving president in the world. He became a civilian president in 1982.
one party state
Despite the lack of commitment on their part, senior opposition leaders and their associates alleged that the APC was working assiduously to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. After the APC was declared winner of some off-season gubernatorial elections, the PDP, NNPP and LP had accused the ruling party of deliberately trying to emasculate the opposition and impose one party on the country. Atiku, in a statement by his Press Assistant, Paul Ibe, in the wake of the last general elections, had alleged that Nigeria was witnessing a situation where what the APC lost in the 2023 elections in Nasarawa, Zamfara states , Kano and Plateau was handed over to them through the courts. “These are clearly ominous signs that threaten not only our faith in the electoral and judicial system, but also demonstrate that our democracy is compromised. It is also very clear that the ruling party will not desist from this shameful ideology of 'snatching, seizing and running away from power'. However, in a spontaneous response, the presidency, through Chief Bayo Onanuga, accused the PDP and Atiku spokesperson of throwing caution to the winds. Similarly, the LP alleged that the APC was instigating crises in opposition parties as a means to hijack the parties or lure their members into the APC. One of its bosses, Marcel Ngogbehei, had stated in a statement that the APC was working to engage the main opposition parties in the North and East. He stated: “The APC is making efforts to convert Nigeria into a one-party system. “They are busy brewing machinations and trying to buy up political parties in the East and North, with the aim of weakening the opposition ahead of the 2027 general elections.”
A major problem for the parties is what some observers described as the absence of principles among members of the political class. This has encouraged politicians to change sides at the slightest opportunity based on their personal benefit. This is evident in the number of members of the National Assembly who have defected to rival parties with the excuse of an “internal crisis” in the party that brought them to the legislative arm of the government. The Executive Director of Finance of the Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority (OORBDA), Ayobami Oyalowo, has highlighted the problem of attrition and expressed hope that the situation can change in the future. “Going from one game to another has never attracted me as a person. While I admit that there should be freedom of association, I also understand that political parties must be built on some unshakable principles and foundations. In most countries in the world, we have leftists, rightists, centrists, etc. Each of the political parties is firmly rooted in clear ideologies and basic principles that are associated with whatever political doctrine they subscribe to. In Nigeria, on the other hand, many people see political parties simply as special purpose vehicles for achieving political office and nothing more. That is why there have been some gray areas and many common people are confused because they cannot differentiate between different political parties. “I hope that as our politics matures, our various political parties will become more ideological and focus on ideals that clearly separate one party from the other,” he said.
In 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian rule, there was not much imbalance in the power equation. Power was not so biased against the opposition. At the end of the 2023 general elections, the ruling APC had the majority of the 36 states that make up the country. He won 20 states; The PDP had 13 states; while the Labor Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the NNPP had one state each. In the National Assembly, the APC won a majority seat among the 109 senators in the Upper Red Chamber. He scored 60; PPD 37; LP (eight); SDP (two); and while APGA had a seat. A similar scenario played out in the House of Representatives. But the equation has been altered by the decision of some opposition lawmakers to defect to the ruling APC. Given the back-and-forth scenario that characterizes the opposition's initiative to forge an alliance, analysts maintain that the delicate balance in the power structure is subject to further changes in the new year.
READ ALSO: The crisis houses of the opposition parties