Before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the winner of the 2024 Edo gubernatorial election, a video circulated on social media showing police officers asking Governor Godwin Obaseki to leave the center INEC's collection report in Benin was enough to indicate that all was not well. good with the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) regarding the elections.
And so it was in the end: on September 22, INEC on Monday declared Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the winner of the elections.
The INEC statement provoked several reactions, mainly from the Labor Party (LP) and the PDP, which alleged manipulation of the results, among other things.
According to the results, Okpebholo, a senator and lawyer, defeated 17 other candidates in the elections. He polled 291,667 votes to defeat his closest rival, PDP candidate Asue Ighodalo, who polled 247,274. The LP candidate, Olumide Akpata, came a distant third with 22,763 votes.
The Labor Party candidate in the Edo State gubernatorial election, Olumide Akpata
The election was considered a three-horse race between Okpebholo and Akpata.
Meanwhile, the PPD and the LP rejected the election result. PDP leaders have indicated that the party will challenge the result in court.
Asuerinme Ighodalo
How the elections were won and lost
Although Okpebholo was among the top three candidates in the election, his victory came as a surprise to some. The margin of victory was also unexpected.
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PREMIUM TIMES highlights some factors that favored the emergence of Okpebholo as the elected governor of the south-south state.
Obaseki's rivalry with Oshiomhole, Philip Shaibu
The election became a proxy battle between Governor Obaseki and his estranged predecessor and “godfather”, Adams Oshiomhole, the senator representing Edo North District. Oshiomhole endorsed Okpebholo, while Ighodalo had the backing of Governor Obaseki.
Political analysts believe that the outcome of the election was Oshiomhole's political vendetta against Obaseki.
Oshiomhole described the APC’s victory in the elections as “very sweet.”
Beyond leading the APC campaign in the state, Oshiomhole secured a landslide victory for his party in Edo North District. The party obtained 130,684 votes in the district, while the PDP obtained 76,959.
Similarly, analysts say Governor Obaseki's rivalry with his estranged Deputy Governor, Philip Shaibu, must also have hurt the PDP's chances in the elections, especially in Edo North District.
Mr Shaibu, who hails from Etsako West council area in Edo North District, got into Governor Obaseki's bad book due to his (Shaibu's) ambition to succeed Mr Obaseki as governor.
Obaseki planned Shaibu's impeachment by the Edo House of Assembly, but the latter sued the governor and the assembly and got the court to quash the impeachment.
Shaibu withdrew from the gubernatorial race, defected to the APC and endorsed the party's candidate and eventual election winner, Okpebholo.
In Mr Shaibu's Etsako West Local Government Area, the APC won with 32,107 votes, while the PDP got 17,483.
Messrs Shaibu and Oshiomhole combined efforts to defeat the PDP in Edo North District, apparently as revenge against their political enemy, Mr Obaseki.
Obaseki's political baggage
Apart from Obaseki's feuds with Shaibu and Oshiomhole, analysts believe that the PDP candidate, Ighodalo, came to the Edo elections carrying much of Governor Obaseki's political baggage.
Among the baggage was Obaseki's refusal to swear in 14 elected members of the Edo House of Assembly from 2019 to 2023 and the governor's mistreatment of the deputy governor, Shaibu.
The governor's refusal to swear in the elected legislators was to prevent Oshiomhole loyalists from taking control of the assembly.
PREMIUM TIMES findings suggested that majority of voters in the 14 constituencies voted against Obaseki's PDP. For example, checks by this newspaper showed that the PDP lost to the APC in nine of the 14 constituencies.
Again, in most of the remaining five constituencies where the PDP won, the margins of victory were negligible.
For example, in Ovia South West Constituency, a local government area, the PDP polled 10,260 votes to defeat the APC which polled 10,150 votes.
Oredo, a local government area, has two such electoral districts.
The two constituencies were among the nine where the APC defeated the PDP, even though Governor Obaseki hails from the council area.
“Our people were very angry with Obaseki for refusing to swear in the two elected members of Oredo,” Tosan Etchie, an indigene of the Oredo council area, told PREMIUM TIMES.
“I know it could be a factor in the loss of PPD in my area, but I'm not so sure,” Etchie said.
Another of Governor Obaseki's baggage was his dispute with the Oba of Benin, Oba Ewuare II, over the then proposed return and storage of the 1,130 stolen artifacts belonging to the state.
The governor and the Oba of Benin disagreed on where the artifacts would be kept. While the Oba wanted the artifacts to be preserved in the Royal Benin Museum, which was to be built within the Palace, Obaseki insisted that they be preserved in the then proposed Edo Museum of West African Arts.
Oba of Benin is the traditional and spiritual ruler of the Benin people, who occupy seven of the 18 local government areas in the south-south state.
Many believe that the break with the revered traditional ruler contributed to the PDP's poor electoral performance.
Osas Odiase, an indigene of Ovia North Eastern Council area within Benin City, told PREMIUM TIMES that more than 70 per cent of the Benin people are loyal to the Oba throne.
Odiase, who resides in Egor local council area, said although Obaseki's rift with the Oba played a role in the loss of Ighodalo, it could not have been the main factor.
“The most important thing was that some people were angry because Obaseki did not perform well, especially when it came to infrastructure,” he said.
Vote buying and other electoral malpractices
Meanwhile, there were widespread complaints that the election was marred by alleged electoral malpractices, including vote buying, vote inflation, and voter suppression.
For example, a prominent election observation group, Yiaga Africa, reported incidents of vote buying in different units and constituencies in the state during the elections.
The group added that they saw APC and PDP operatives bribing voters with N10,000 cash across the state.
Similarly, during the compilation of results, the PDP had raised the alarm that the votes announced by INEC did not match the local government areas figures presented by their party representatives.
Just before the final declaration of results, Tony Iyoha, the PDP state agent, alleged that the votes announced by INEC were “fabricated” because they did not reflect the votes cast.
Furthermore, PREMIUM TIMES can confirm that results from some polling units showed that the number of votes cast was greater than the number of accredited voters.
For example, the result from electoral unit 009 in Weppa Ward 4 in Etsako East council area showed that 406 votes were cast despite 213 voters being accredited for the poll.
The APC won with 352 votes at the polling station, while the PDP came second with 52 votes.
Overall, the alleged incidence of electoral malpractices could have contributed to determining the outcome of the elections.
Voter apathy
There was an overwhelming case of voter apathy in all polling units and constituencies during the elections.
According to INEC data, more than 2.2 million voters were expected to cast their votes in the elections.
Results announced by INEC revealed that voter apathy in Nigeria's elections has continued, with low turnout in all 18 Edo local government areas.
Specifically, data from the INEC portal show that there are 2,629,025 registered voters in the state, but only 2,249,780 voters obtained their Permanent Voter Card (PVC) and were thus qualified to vote.
A total of 583,965 people ultimately voted in the election, representing 25.96 percent of the people who collected their PVCs.
The total number of votes in the election also represents 22.21 percent of registered voters in the state.
This means that 1,665,815 voters who collected their PVCs did not cast their votes during the elections. Perhaps the outcome of the election would have been different if the majority of residents had turned out to vote, given that more than 70 percent of registered voters did not vote.